22 May 2026
📉 Mark Zandi’s Vicious Cycle Index now puts recession odds near 48% over the next year. 👷 The warning is coming from the labor market, not the stock market or GDP headlines. 📊 The labor force participation rate has fallen steadily, meaning more working-age Americans are leaving the job market entirely. 🏥 Without health care hiring, Zandi says the US economy would already be losing jobs. ⚠️ Tariffs are cutting into company profits and household purchasing power, freezing hiring across major sectors. 🚫 The immigration crackdown is shrinking the workforce, reducing output, and weakening future tax revenue. 🔁 The deeper pattern is clear: America’s economy is being weakened by overlapping policy shocks that feed into one another.
#MarkZandi #MoodyAnalytics #Recession
